FIREFLY AEROSPACE · VEHICLE PROFILE · DATA AS OF 2026-05-14
Alpha
Operational
Expendable
Small
7
Flights
Success / Partial / Failure
42.86%
Success Rate
3/7 flights
—
Fleet Leader
No booster telemetry
Mar 12, 2026
Cadence
Last completed flight
RELIABILITY & S/PF/F SPLIT
42.86%
Overall success rate · Wilson 95% LB 15.82%
3
Success
1
Partial Failure
3
Failure
0
Scrubbed
Days since last failure498 days
Current success streak1
Last completed flightMar 12, 2026
Methodology IP
S/PF/F split is non-negotiable methodology. Partial failures are NOT collapsed into failures. A partial (e.g. payload delivered to wrong orbit, booster lost on otherwise-successful flight) is treated as a distinct outcome for underwriting. See /methodology/.
RECENT FLIGHTS
| Date | Mission | Payload | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | LM-400 TDS | — · 1,170 kg | Success | |
| Jan 01, 2025 | LM-400 TDS | — · 1,170 kg | Failure | Briefing → |
| Jul 04, 2024 | SOC-i | — · 1,170 kg | Success | |
| Dec 22, 2023 | Tyvak-1015 | — · 1,170 kg | Failure | |
| Sep 15, 2023 | VICTUS NOX | — · 1,170 kg | Success | |
| Oct 01, 2022 | Serenity | — · 1,170 kg | Partial | |
| Sep 03, 2021 | BSS 1 | — · 1,170 kg | Failure |
PAYLOAD & ORBIT MIX
8.2K kg
Total mass lifted
—
Most-flown orbit
0% gov
Gov / commercial split
0
Crewed flights
OPERATOR CONTEXT
OperatorFirefly Aerospace
REGISTRY DATA
First flight2021-09-02
Registry launches6 (as of 2025-12-31)
ClassSmall
Height29 m
Fairing diameter2.0 m
First-stage propellantkerolox
ReusabilityExpendable
List price$15.0M
Payload capacity (kg)
LEO1,170 kg
SSO745 kg
Source: space_launch_vehicle_registry.json · Operator page →
METHODOLOGY
Per-vehicle reliability is aggregated from the AstraVeris launch_events table with Wilson 95% lower-bound error estimates. Subsystem outcomes are extracted by a local Gemma model from primary-source articles — outcomes are never fabricated; absence of a row means "not tracked". Aspirational vehicles (not yet flown) carry registry-only metadata with explicit "Not yet flown" banners. Full specifications: /methodology/. Licensing terms: /data-licensing/.
Not investment advice. For insurance underwriting, verify against operator investigation reports.