Space Finance Intelligence · Research

Case Studies & Deep Dives

Company case studies apply the full AstraVeris risk stack to one name — the 11-factor ARI composite, cash runway anatomy, debt maturity wall, peer-group positioning, and a capital-markets thesis. Sector deep dives map an entire vertical's financing landscape with the math shown. Sourced from SEC filings, federal contract feeds, and the live launch pipeline. No fabricated numbers; where we lack a signal or a claim is single-source, we say so.

Case Study · 01 RKLB

Rocket Lab

The balance sheet finally matches the manifest. A $355M convertible with a 2029 maturity and a deep-in-the-money conversion price means the paper is dilution, not a funding clock. The one pre-profit launch provider that is not racing for capital.
69.1ARI
~50 moRunway
#3/15Peer Rank
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Case Study · 02 LUNR

Intuitive Machines

A 0.7-month cash runway headline is the wrong frame. $1.37B of federal awards and a $4.82B NSNS framework are what the company is actually running on. The risk is execution slip on milestone-funded receivables, not solvency.
61.9ARI
0.7 moRunway*
#1/16Peer Rank
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Sector Deep Dive · 01 POWER

Space Power

Four layers, four risk profiles: beam-to-Earth solar is a binary demo bet, Star Catcher's PPA book is options not backlog, the space PV oligopoly is under silicon cost attack, and the nuclear cohort is government-anchored and fuel-constrained. The financing landscape from solar arrays to orbital utilities — with the efficiency-chain math shown.
$88MStar Catcher raised
~$2.5BX-energy cumulative
10–20%Laser e2e eff.
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Sector Deep Dive · 02 ORBITAL DC

Orbital Datacenters

1.14M+ satellites of FCC filings versus one flown H100 sat, two hosted nodes, and twelve Chinese compute satellites. The power/thermal/launch math says orbital wins only if Starship hits ~$200/kg, hardware survives 5 years, and system mass lands at ~15 kg/kW — miss one and terrestrial wins. Funded reality, separated from renders.
$48.7/WF9 launch cost/W
~$200MStarcloud raised
12ADA sats flying
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Sector Deep Dive · 03 SAT MFG

Satellite Production Economics

Of a $665B ten-year build-and-launch market, only ~7% of manufacturing value is open to merchants. Components carry the margin (RKLB blends 34–40% gross), integration carries the risk (York runs 19.5% at $386M revenue), and the SDA demand metronome just skipped a beat. The merchant market vs vertical integration, in $/kg.
~7%Merchant-open value
19.5%York GM FY25
$5.55BBAE/Ball comp
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Research · Weekly Deep Dives

Newsletter Deep Dive Archive

Beyond the case studies, every weekly issue carries a 600–900-word thesis-driven Deep Dive on one company or sector, plus deal flow with valuations. Six issues archived since April 22, 2026; the newest is Issue #6 (June 1, 2026) on the New Glenn prelaunch anomaly.
6Issues archived
WeeklyCadence
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Upcoming Case Studies

More coming

The next wave of case studies — one per week, alternating a "healthy mid-cap" with a "capital-structure anatomy" piece. Vote a ticker into the queue: [email protected]. Also on the roadmap: per-company ARI factor drill-ins, LP-grade deal memos, and custom deal screens — whichever wins buyer validation ships first.
SPACE FINANCE, EVERY TUESDAY
The deals, launches, and policy moves shaping the space economy. Analyst perspective, not press releases.
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