Firefly Aerospace
Small launch (Alpha) and lunar lander (Blue Ghost). Blue Ghost completed first fully successful commercial lunar soft landing (March 2025). Eclipse medium-lift in development. IPO'd August 2025.
FINANCIAL HEALTH
CAPITAL & CREDIT PROFILE
Reported fundamentals from SEC XBRL companyfacts. Derived figures carry their formula in the caption.
Latest quarter (Q1 ended 2026-03-31, filed 2026-05-04): revenue $80.9M · net income −$96.7M · cash $326.2M — SEC XBRL.
Source: USAspending.gov award obligations matched to this company. Obligations, not recognized revenue.
SCHEDULE CREDIBILITY
How well this operator historically meets its own projected dates — launch NETs, company-announced roadmap milestones, and forward-dated facility plans. 100 = says what it does. Discount forward guidance accordingly.
| Source | Events | Late (share) | Median slip | Median slip, late only | Sub-score | On-time allowance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roadmap milestones | 4 | 1 (25%) | 0 d | 331 d | 77.3 | 30 d |
WORST SLIPS (RECEIPTS)
| Commitment | Source | Announced | Outcome | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firefly IPO on NYSE as FLY (Firefly Programs) open, 331d past target | Roadmap milestones | 2025-08 | still open | 331 d and counting |
SCI = 100 × Σ(event credit) ÷ N over the trailing 36 months (2023-07-29 → 2026-07-28). Event credit = 1.0 when the commitment met its announced date (launches: net NET slip < 1 day; roadmap milestones & facility plans: within 30 days of the announced target window — month/year-precision targets count the whole period as on-time), else 30 ÷ (30 + days late beyond that allowance). Sources are pooled, so each source weighs by its event count. Sources: launch NET-change log (LL2 ingest, tracked since 2026-04-17; flown launches in coverage + not-yet-flown launches already slipped ≥1 day; cancelled launches excluded), roadmap registry milestones (company-announced targets, verified provenance only; open milestones past target count as late by days-overdue), facility_plans rows with target_date after announced_at (filing-dated rows excluded). Confidence: high ≥20 events, medium ≥8, low ≥5; no score below 5 events. 100 = says what it does.
Window: 2023-07-29 → 2026-07-28 (36 months) · launch NET log live since 2026-04-17
FLEET COMPOSITION
Every vehicle this operator has flown. Linked profiles carry the full reliability + reuse + subsystem record.
| Vehicle | Class | Launches | Success rate | Reuse | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpha | Small | 7 | 42.9% | Expendable | Profile → |
| Firefly Alpha Block 2 | — | 3 | — | — |
RECENT LAUNCHES
| Date | Mission | Vehicle | Orbit | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2026 | ConnectedCosmos Launch 2 | Firefly Alpha Block 2 | SSO | Delayed | |
| Sep 30, 2026 | QuickSounder | Firefly Alpha Block 2 | SSO | Delayed | |
| Sep 30, 2026 | VICTUS HAZE Jackal | Firefly Alpha Block 2 | SSO | Delayed | |
| Mar 12, 2026 | LM-400 TDS | Alpha | — | Success | Source ↗ |
| Jan 01, 2025 | LM-400 TDS | Alpha | — | Failure | Source ↗ · Briefing → |
| Jul 04, 2024 | SOC-i | Alpha | — | Success | Source ↗ |
| Dec 22, 2023 | Tyvak-1015 | Alpha | — | Failure | Source ↗ |
| Sep 15, 2023 | VICTUS NOX | Alpha | — | Success | Source ↗ |
| Oct 01, 2022 | Serenity | Alpha | — | Partial | Source ↗ |
| Sep 03, 2021 | BSS 1 | Alpha | — | Failure | Source ↗ |
RECENT DEALS & CONTRACTS
| Date | Type | Amount | Counterparty | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 30, 2026 | Contract Award | $21.5M | Firefly Aerospace, SSC Space | High |
| Jun 26, 2026 | M And A | — | Firefly Aerospace, Space-ng | High |
SECTOR POSITION
RECENT COVERAGE
| Date | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | Payload Space | NASA Puts $2B Price Tag on Nuclear Mars Mission |
| Jul 09, 2026 | SpaceNews | Interior Department requests information on offshore launch options |
| Jul 01, 2026 | NASASpaceFlight | NASA announces new lander contracts for Moon Base Phase One |
| Jul 01, 2026 | Payload Space | NASA Praises Blue Origin’s Mishap Progress, Announces Moon Base Contracts |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Payload Space | Payload Field Guide: CLPS Missions |
REGISTRY DATA
Source: space_company_registry.json · Operator homepage → · NASA CLPS providers page lists Firefly Aerospace as a CLPS vendor pool member with two task orders, including Blue Ghost Mission 1 (which per the same NASA source achieved the first fully successful c
METHODOLOGY
Launch history and subsystem outcomes aggregate from AstraVeris's launch_events table with Wilson 95% lower bounds on success rates. ARI scores come from the 11-factor composite (/finance/methodology/). Constellation counts derive from the live CelesTrak/GCAT object catalog. Gov contracts from USAspending.gov awards; private deals from deduplicated pipeline deal extraction. Absence of a row means "not tracked" — we never fabricate. See /methodology/ for the full data model and /data-licensing/ for licensing terms.
Not investment advice. For insurance underwriting, verify against primary-source filings and operator investigation reports.