China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation
China's primary state-owned space contractor; operator of the Long March family of launch vehicles, designer of Tiangong space station, Shenzhou crewed capsule, and Beidou navigation satellites. Globally the second-largest annual launch operator by cadence after SpaceX.
FINANCIAL HEALTH
SCHEDULE CREDIBILITY
How well this operator historically meets its own projected dates — launch NETs, company-announced roadmap milestones, and forward-dated facility plans. 100 = says what it does. Discount forward guidance accordingly.
| Source | Events | Late (share) | Median slip | Median slip, late only | Sub-score | On-time allowance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Launch NETs | 66 | 10 (15.2%) | 0 d | 10.5 d | 95.6 | 1 d |
WORST SLIPS (RECEIPTS)
| Commitment | Source | Announced | Outcome | Slip |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chang'e 7 not yet flown; NET changed 5x | Launch NETs | 2026-08-31 | now NET 2027-12-31 | 487 d and counting |
| Flight 2 not yet flown; NET changed 2x | Launch NETs | 2026-08-31 | now NET 2026-10-31 | 61 d and counting |
| Unknown Payload NET changed 3x | Launch NETs | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-29 | 12 d |
SCI = 100 × Σ(event credit) ÷ N over the trailing 36 months (2023-10-28 → 2026-10-27). Event credit = 1.0 when the commitment met its announced date (launches: net NET slip < 1 day; roadmap milestones & facility plans: within 30 days of the announced target window — month/year-precision targets count the whole period as on-time), else 30 ÷ (30 + days late beyond that allowance). Sources are pooled, so each source weighs by its event count. Sources: launch NET-change log (LL2 ingest, tracked since 2026-04-17; flown launches in coverage + not-yet-flown launches already slipped ≥1 day; cancelled launches excluded), roadmap registry milestones (company-announced targets, verified provenance only; open milestones past target count as late by days-overdue), facility_plans rows with target_date after announced_at (filing-dated rows excluded). Confidence: high ≥20 events, medium ≥8, low ≥5; no score below 5 events. 100 = says what it does.
Window: 2023-10-28 → 2026-10-27 (36 months) · launch NET log live since 2026-04-17
FLEET COMPOSITION
Every vehicle this operator has flown. Linked profiles carry the full reliability + reuse + subsystem record.
| Vehicle | Class | Launches | Success rate | Reuse | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chang Zheng 3B | — | 101 | 95.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 2D | — | 97 | 99.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 2C | — | 73 | 98.6% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 4B | — | 59 | 98.3% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 4C | — | 58 | 96.6% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 2F | — | 28 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 3A | — | 27 | 100.0% | — | |
| Gushenxing 1 | — | 24 | 91.7% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 6A | — | 23 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 11 | — | 18 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 3C | — | 17 | 100.0% | — | |
| Lijian 1 | — | 16 | 93.8% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 6 | — | 15 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 3B Yz 1 | — | 15 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 7A | — | 14 | 85.7% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 3 | — | 13 | 76.9% | — | |
| Jielong 3 | — | 11 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 7 | — | 9 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 5 | — | 9 | 88.9% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 2C Yz 1S | — | 9 | 88.9% | — | |
| Feng Bao 1 | — | 8 | 50.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 2E | — | 7 | 71.4% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 2C Iii Sd | — | 7 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 8A | — | 6 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 8 | — | 6 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 12 | — | 5 | 100.0% | — | |
| Yinli 1 | — | 4 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 8A | — | 4 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 5B | — | 4 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 2D Yz 3 | — | 4 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 7A | — | 3 | 66.7% | — | |
| Kt 1 | — | 3 | 0.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 5B Yz 2 | — | 3 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 3C Yz 1 | — | 3 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 12 | — | 3 | 100.0% | — | |
| Smart Dragon 3 | — | 2 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 7 | — | 2 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 5 / 5B | Heavy | 2 | 100.0% | Expendable | Profile → |
| Long March 4C | — | 2 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 2D | — | 2 | 100.0% | — | |
| Kuaizhou | — | 2 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 4 | — | 2 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 2 | — | 2 | 50.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 1 | — | 2 | 100.0% | — | |
| Zhishenxing 1 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Tianlong 3 | — | 1 | 0.0% | — | |
| Tianlong 2 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 230 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 222 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 221 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 218 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 213 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 211 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 195 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 188 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 187 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 178 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 176 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 172 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 169 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 168 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 144 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 137 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 076 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 062 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Satcat 2026 060 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Os M1 | — | 1 | 0.0% | — | |
| Long March 8 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 8 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 6C | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 6A | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 3B E | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 2F G | — | 1 | — | — | |
| Long March 2C Yz 1S | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 12B | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Long March 12A | — | 1 | — | — | |
| Long March 10B | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Lijian 2 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Kuaizhou 1A | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Jielong 1 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Gushenxing 2 | — | 1 | 0.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 7 Yz 1A | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 6C | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 5 Yz 2 | — | 1 | 100.0% | — | |
| Chang Zheng 12A | — | 1 | 100.0% | — |
RECENT LAUNCHES
| Date | Mission | Vehicle | Orbit | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2027 | Chang'e 7 | Long March 5 / 5B | cislunar | Delayed | |
| Nov 25, 2026 | Shenzhou 24 | Long March 2F G | LEO | Delayed | |
| Nov 05, 2026 | SatNet LEO Group TBD? | Long March 12 | LEO | Delayed | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Flight 2 | Long March 12A | LEO | Delayed | |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Unknown Payload | Long March 8A | LEO | Success | Webcast ↗ |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Yaogan 53-07 | Chang Zheng 4B | LEO | Success | Source ↗ |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Yaogan 50-03 | Chang Zheng 6A | LEO | Success | Source ↗ |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Xiguang 4-01 | Gushenxing 1 | — | Success | Source ↗ |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Unknown Payload | Long March 12 | LEO | Success | Webcast ↗ |
| Oct 09, 2026 | OBJECT A | Satcat 2026 230 | LEO | Success | Source ↗ |
SECTOR POSITION
RECENT COVERAGE
| Date | Source | Headline |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | NextSpaceflight | Long March 8A | SatNet LEO Group 28 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | NextSpaceflight | Long March 4B | Yaogan 53-07 to 09/56-19 to 21 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | NextSpaceflight | Long March 6A | Yaogan 50-03 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | NASASpaceFlight | China readies first commercial resupply craft, first booster reflight, and next landing attempt |
| Oct 20, 2026 | NASASpaceFlight | Launch Preview: H3, Falcon 9, Electron, and others to launch during busy week |
REGISTRY DATA
Source: space_company_registry.json · Operator homepage → · Wikipedia summary of CASC corporate history, subsidiaries, and Long March family. Operator's English-language site at english.spacechina.com confirms ownership structure.
METHODOLOGY
Launch history and subsystem outcomes aggregate from AstraVeris's launch_events table with Wilson 95% lower bounds on success rates. ARI scores come from the 11-factor composite (/finance/methodology/). Constellation counts derive from the live CelesTrak/GCAT object catalog. Gov contracts from USAspending.gov awards; private deals from deduplicated pipeline deal extraction. Absence of a row means "not tracked" — we never fabricate. See /methodology/ for the full data model and /data-licensing/ for licensing terms.
Not investment advice. For insurance underwriting, verify against primary-source filings and operator investigation reports.