AstraVeris · Quarterly Benchmark · 2026 Q3
State of the Space Industrial Base — 2026 Q3
Executive Summary
- Editorial placeholder — replace with 5 bullets of analyst commentary.
- Typically: top-line HHI reading + shift vs. prior quarter.
- Most concentrated segment and what's driving it.
- Reliability standout (positive or negative) this quarter.
- Forward hook: what to watch next quarter.
Concentration Snapshot (HHI)
Operator concentration (launches)
0.2054
Moderate
Vehicle concentration (flights)
0.0709
Low
Contract concentration ($USD)
0.2775
High
SBIR concentration ($USD)
0.0339
Low
SAI-Tier Concentration Heatmap
| Tier | Name | HHI | Band | Top Operator | Top Share | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 0 | Raw Materials & Basic Inputs | — | — | — | — | No launch-derived factors in this tier |
| Tier 1 | Components & Subsystems | — | — | — | — | No launch-derived factors in this tier |
| Tier 2 | System Integrators | 0.5723 | High | spacex | 74.9% | |
| Tier 3 | Services & Infrastructure | — | — | — | — | No launch-derived factors in this tier |
| Tier 4 | End Users & Downstream | — | — | — | — | No launch-derived factors in this tier |
| Tier 5 | Workforce & Education | — | — | — | — | No launch-derived factors in this tier |
Top 10 — Operators & Vehicles
Most-active operators
| # | Player | Flights | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | spacex | 47 | 41.6% |
| 2 | casc | 13 | 11.5% |
| 3 | calt | 11 | 9.7% |
| 4 | fka | 6 | 5.3% |
| 5 | sast | 5 | 4.4% |
| 6 | rocket_lab | 5 | 4.4% |
| 7 | czhj | 2 | 1.8% |
| 8 | dfk | 2 | 1.8% |
| 9 | cas_space | 2 | 1.8% |
| 10 | zkyt | 2 | 1.8% |
Most-flown vehicles
| # | Player | Flights | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | falcon-9 | 28 | 24.8% |
| 2 | soyuz-2-1b | 4 | 3.5% |
| 3 | chang-zheng-6a | 3 | 2.6% |
| 4 | long-march-8a | 3 | 2.6% |
| 5 | chang-zheng-4b | 2 | 1.8% |
| 6 | smart-dragon-3 | 2 | 1.8% |
| 7 | yinli-1 | 2 | 1.8% |
| 8 | kinetica-1 | 2 | 1.8% |
| 9 | lijian-1 | 2 | 1.8% |
| 10 | long-march-12 | 2 | 1.8% |
Top 10 — Contract Recipients
Largest prime-contract recipients
| # | Player | USD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BLUE ORIGIN, LLC | $660.0M | 51.4% |
| 2 | SIERRA LOBO INC | $75.7M | 5.9% |
| 3 | THE MITRE CORPORATION | $75.6M | 5.9% |
| 4 | CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY | $72.3M | 5.6% |
| 5 | NOOKS LLC | $53.0M | 4.1% |
| 6 | ASRC CONSULTING & ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES, LLC | $18.5M | 1.4% |
| 7 | KONIAG SERVICES, INC. | $17.5M | 1.4% |
| 8 | UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA | $15.2M | 1.2% |
| 9 | ROHDE & SCHWARZ USA, INC. | $14.6M | 1.1% |
| 10 | IMPULSE SPACE, INC. | $12.5M | 1.0% |
Largest SBIR recipients
| # | Player | USD | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IST RESEARCH, LLC | $9.5M | 11.2% |
| 2 | COMBUSTION RESEARCH & FLOW TECHNOLOGY INC | $5.3M | 6.3% |
| 3 | LUMETRICS, INC. | $4.0M | 4.7% |
| 4 | ZIGGURATUM, INC. | $3.5M | 4.1% |
| 5 | SNC THERAPEUTICS, INC. | $3.5M | 4.1% |
| 6 | MILLION MARKER WELLNESS INC | $3.4M | 4.0% |
| 7 | DIGITAL BAZAAR INC | $3.0M | 3.5% |
| 8 | MAKEL ENGINEERING, INC. | $2.3M | 2.7% |
| 9 | ADVANCED SPACE LLC | $1.8M | 2.1% |
| 10 | SPORIAN MICROSYSTEMS, INC | $1.5M | 1.8% |
Operator Reliability — Trailing Quarter (Wilson 95%)
| Operator | Successes | Rate | 95% Wilson |
|---|---|---|---|
| spacex | 47/47 | 100.0% | [92.4% — 100.0%] |
| casc | 13/13 | 100.0% | [77.2% — 100.0%] |
| calt | 11/12 | 91.7% | [64.6% — 98.5%] |
| fka | 6/6 | 100.0% | [61.0% — 100.0%] |
| sast | 5/5 | 100.0% | [56.5% — 100.0%] |
| rocket_lab | 5/5 | 100.0% | [56.5% — 100.0%] |
| czhj | 2/2 | 100.0% | [34.2% — 100.0%] |
| dfk | 2/2 | 100.0% | [34.2% — 100.0%] |
| cas_space | 2/2 | 100.0% | [34.2% — 100.0%] |
| zkyt | 2/2 | 100.0% | [34.2% — 100.0%] |
Grant Pipeline
FY2026 to date
$9.84B
FY2025 full year
$18.35B
YoY delta
-46.4%
Methodology
HHI is reported on the 0-1 scale (multiply by 10,000 for the US DOJ convention). Bands: Low (<0.15), Moderate (0.15-0.25), High (>0.25). Reliability uses the Wilson score interval at z=1.96. Launch attempts counted: success, partial_failure, failure. See /gov/methodology.pdf for full definitions, source attribution, and the AstraVeris SAI weighting scheme.
Cite as: AstraVeris, State of the Space Industrial Base, 2026 Q3. astraveris.ai/benchmarks/2026-Q3